July 2023 general election: Difference between revisions

From BMG Wiki
Jump to navigation Jump to search
mNo edit summary
No edit summary
 
(20 intermediate revisions by 4 users not shown)
Line 1: Line 1:
{{Infobox election
{{Infobox election
| election_name = Next general election
| election_name = July 2023 general election
| country = United Kingdom
| country = United Kingdom
| type = parliamentary
| type = parliamentary
Line 6: Line 6:
| previous_election = May 2023 general election
| previous_election = May 2023 general election
| previous_year = May 2023
| previous_year = May 2023
| election_date = No later than 23 July 2023
| election_date = 1 July 2023
| seats_for_election = All [[Parliament constituencies|50 seats]] in the [[House of Commons]]
| seats_for_election = All [[Parliament constituencies|60 seats]] in the [[House of Commons]]
| majority_seats = 26
| majority_seats = 31
| turnout =
| turnout = <!-- | registered = -->
<!-- | registered = -->
<!-- | 1blank = Exit poll -->
<!-- | 1blank = Exit poll -->


<!-- Conservative -->| image1 =TheBritishUnion
<!-- Conservative -->| image1 = Marcus_Stuyvesant
| leader1 = [[TheBritishUnion]]
| leader1 = [[Marcus_Stuyvesant]]
| party1 = Conservative
| party1 = Conservative
| color1 = 0087dc
| color1 = 0087dc
| leader_since1 = 16 April 2023
| leader_since1 = 21 June 2023
| leaders_seat1 = [[Strathclyde (Parliament constituency)|Strathclyde]]
| leaders_seat1 = [[Norfolk (Parliament constituency)|Norfolk]]
| last_election1 = 21 seats, 41.5%
| last_election1 = 21 (25)<ref>Seats in (brackets) reflect what last election's results would've been if calculated on 60 seats.</ref> seats, 41.5%
| seats_before1 = 21
| seats_before1 = 21 (25)
| seats1 =
| seats1 =  
| seats_needed1 = {{Increase}} 5
| seats_needed1 = {{Increase}} 10 ({{Increase}} 6)
| seat_change1 =
| seat_change1 =  
| popular_vote1 =
| popular_vote1 =  
| percentage1 =
| percentage1 =  
| swing1 =
| swing1 = <!-- Labour -->
 
| image2 = RebaAstor
<!-- Labour -->| image2 = RebaAstor
| leader2 = [[RebaAstor]]
| leader2 = [[RebaAstor]]
| party2 = Labour
| party2 = Labour
Line 34: Line 32:
| leader_since2 = 17 April 2023
| leader_since2 = 17 April 2023
| leaders_seat2 = [[Lothian (Parliament constituency)|Lothian]]
| leaders_seat2 = [[Lothian (Parliament constituency)|Lothian]]
| last_election2 = 15 seats, 30.0%
| last_election2 = 15 (18) seats, 30.0%
| seats_before2 = 15
| seats_before2 = 15 (18)
| seats2 =
| seats2 =  
| seats_needed2 = {{Increase}} 11
| seats_needed2 = {{Increase}} 16 ({{Increase}} 13)
| seat_change2 =
| seat_change2 =  
| popular_vote2 =
| popular_vote2 =  
| percentage2 =
| percentage2 =  
| swing2 =
| swing2 = <!-- Four Star Party -->
 
| image3 = Dxavus
<!-- Four Star Party -->| image3 =Dxavus
| leader3 = [[Dxavus]]
| leader3 = [[Dxavus]]
| party3 = Four Star
| party3 = Four Star
| color3 = 000000
| color3 = 000000
| leader_since3 = 1 May 2023
| leader_since3 = 1 May 2023
| leaders_seat3 = ''TBD''
| leaders_seat3 = [[Surrey (Parliament constituency)|Surrey]]
| last_election3 = 5 seats, 11.1%
| last_election3 = 5 (7) seats, 11.1%
| seats_before3 = 6
| seats_before3 = 6 (8)
| seats3 =
| seats3 =  
| seats_needed3 = {{increase}} 20
| seats_needed3 = {{increase}} 25 ({{Increase}} 23)
| seat_change3 =
| seat_change3 =  
| popular_vote3 =
| popular_vote3 =  
| percentage3 =
| percentage3 =  
| swing3 =
| swing3 = <!-- Progressive -->
| image4 = DaMysticPenguin
| leader4 = [[DaMysticPenguin]]
| party4 = [[Progressive Party|Progressive]]
| color4 = f97cd0
| leader_since4 = 11 June 2023
| leaders_seat4 = N/A
| last_election4 = ''Did not stand''
| seats_before4 =
| seats4 = 0
| seats_needed4 = {{increase}} 31 ({{Increase}} 31)
| seat_change4 =
| popular_vote4 =
| percentage4 =
| swing4 =
| title = [[Prime Minister]] and [[Deputy Prime Minister]]
| before_election = [[TheBritishUnion]] ([[Conservative]]) <br> [[AdaptedFrost]] ([[Voice]])
}}
The '''next general election''' is due to be held on 1 July 2023. Currently, the parties expected to run in the July 2023 general election are the [[Conservative & Unionist Party|Conservatives]], the [[Labour Party]], the [[Four Star Party]], and [[Progressive Party|Progressives]].
 
==Opinion polls==
{| class="wikitable sortable tpl-blanktable" style="text-align:center;font-size:90%;line-height:14px;"
! rowspan="2" |Dates<br>conducted
! rowspan="2" |Pollster
! rowspan="2" data-sort-type="number" |Sample<br>size
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;" |[[Conservative Party|Con]]
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;" |[[Labour Party|Lab]]
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;" |[[Reclaim Party|Reclaim]]
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;" |[[Liberal Democrats|Lib Dems]]
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;" |[[Four Star]]
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;" |[[Voice]]
! rowspan="2" class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"|Lead
! rowspan="2" style="width:50px;"|Result
|-
! data-sort-type="number" style="background:#0087dc;" |
! data-sort-type="number" style="background:#e4003b;" |
! data-sort-type="number" style="background:#15172e;" |
! data-sort-type="number" style="background:#faa61b;" |
! data-sort-type="number" style="background:#000000;" |
! data-sort-type="number" style="background:#088f8f;" |
|-
|4–6 June
|[https://twitter.com/BMG_RBX British Media Group]
|65
| style="background:#ccebff;color:black" |'''24'''
|12
|6
|1
|4
|3
| style="background:#0087dc;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-12" |12
| style="background:#525252;color:#FFFFFF;" |Hung
|-
| colspan="14" | The [[Liberal Democrats]] are deregistered as a political party.
|-
| colspan="14" | The [[Reclaim Party]] are deregistered due to the ban of their former leader BenHenley.
|-
| colspan="14" | The Progressive Party are registered by former Justice secretary DaMysticPenguin.
|-
| colspan="14" | Prime Minister [[TheBritishUnion]] calls for an early general election for the first of July due to the [[Voice Party]] withdrawing as a minor coalition partner.
|-
! rowspan="2" |Dates<br>conducted
! rowspan="2" |Pollster
! rowspan="2" data-sort-type="number" |Sample<br>size
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;" |[[Conservative Party|Con]]
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;" |[[Labour Party|Lab]]
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;" |[[Progressive Party|Pro]]
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;" |[[Four Star]]
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;" |[[Voice]]
! rowspan="2" class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"|Lead
! rowspan="2" style="width:50px;"|Result
|-
! data-sort-type="number" style="background:#0087dc;" |
! data-sort-type="number" style="background:#e4003b;" |
! data-sort-type="number" style="background:#f97cd0;" |
! data-sort-type="number" style="background:#000000;" |
! data-sort-type="number" style="background:#088f8f;" |
|-
|20-23 June
|[https://twitter.com/BTMediaRBLX BT Media]
|87
|17
| style="background:#f8c1be;color:black" |'''22'''
|0
|8
|13
| style="background:#e4003b;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-5" |5
| style="background:#525252;color:#FFFFFF;" |Hung
|-
|22-24 June
|[https://twitter.com/BBC_RX British Broadcasting Corporation]
|110
|15
| style="background:#f8c1be;color:black" |'''20'''
|8
|11
|6
| style="background:#e4003b;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-5" |5
| style="background:#525252;color:#FFFFFF;" |Hung
|-
| colspan="14" | The [[Voice Party]] is deregistered by the Electoral Commission on several offences, including voter importing which originally issued a 20% voter deduction, theft of [[Labour Party]] manifesto policies, and failing to fulfill it's role as a 'responsible political entity.'
|-
! rowspan="2" |Dates<br>conducted
! rowspan="2" |Pollster
! rowspan="2" data-sort-type="number" |Sample<br>size
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;" |[[Conservative Party|Con]]
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;" |[[Labour Party|Lab]]
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;" |[[Progressive Party|Pro]]
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;" |[[Four Star]]
! rowspan="2" class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"|Lead
! rowspan="2" style="width:50px;"|Result
|-
! data-sort-type="number" style="background:#0087dc;" |
! data-sort-type="number" style="background:#e4003b;" |
! data-sort-type="number" style="background:#f97cd0;" |
! data-sort-type="number" style="background:#000000;" |
|-
|30 June - 1 July
|[https://twitter.com/BMG_RBX British Media Group]
|77
|18
| style="background:#f8c1be;color:black" |'''25'''
|9
|8
| style="background:#e4003b;color:#FFFFFF;" data-sort-value="-7" |7
| style="background:#525252;color:#FFFFFF;" |Hung
|}


<!-- Voice -->| image4 =AdaptedFrost
| leader4 = [[AdaptedFrost]]
| party4 = Voice
| color4 = 088f8f
| leader_since4 = 2 May 2023
| leaders_seat4 = [[Cambridgeshire (Parliament constituency)|Cambridgeshire]]
| last_election4 = 5 seats, 9.0%
| seats_before4 = 5
| seats4 =
| seats_needed4 = {{increase}} 21
| seat_change4 =
| popular_vote4 =
| percentage4 =
| swing4 =


<!-- Lib Dems -->| image5 =90197666
==Background==
| leader5 = [[BlazeFuse]]
In the 14th of April, 2023, the Speaker of the House of Commons, [[TheBritishUnion]], became the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for a second term following an unopposed leadership election for the governing [[Conservative and Unionist Party]], after the resignation of former Prime Minister BenHenley due to internal party disagreements over the role of the Levelling Up secretary and Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, ThomasHenley, as well as subsequent cabinet resignations that led to the loss of confidence in the Prime Minister. The aforementioned Conservative and Unionist Party – had governed the United Kingdom since the [[November 2022 general election]], with the first Conservative government under Prime Minister [[ShiforRBLX]] with a narrow majority in Parliament with 26 seats. TheBritishUnion succeeded Shifor in his first term as the leader of the Conservatives, further increasing the majority to 29 seats in the [[January 2023 general election]], the best ever result for the [[Conservative Party|Conservatives]] in British electoral history. In the [[May 2023 general election]], TheBritishUnion lost his single-party parliamentary majority to 21 seats, resulting in successful coalition talks with the [[Voice Party]] and a fourth straight Conservative government. However, in the 21st of June, 2023, the [[Voice Party]] announced their withdrawal from the coalition agreement with the Conservatives, due to a number of factors, including low government approval ratings and high opposition approval ratings, uncertainty amongst cabinet members, and previous accusations and scandals that culminated in the collapse of the [[cabinet|coalition cabinet]] and calls for an early general election were made shortly after. Prime Minister TBU was replaced by [[Marcus_Stuyvesant]], the [[Minister of State for Commonwealth and International Development]].
| party5 = Liberal Democrats
| color5 = faa61a
| leader_since5 = 17 March 2023
| leaders_seat5 = ''TBD''
| last_election5 = 3 seats, 6.3%
| seats_before5 = 3
| seats5 =
| seats_needed5 = {{increase}} 23
| seat_change5 =
| popular_vote5 =
| percentage5 =
| swing5 =


<!-- Reclaim -->| image6 = benjaminhenley
==Seat increase ==
| leader6 = [[benjaminhenley]]
The seats in the House of Commons were increased from fifty (50) to sixty (60) following the Amendment to the Electoral Provisions Act 2021 by [[Minister without Portfolio]] [[martinbani22]]. This change takes place this election.
| party6 = Reclaim
| color6 = 14172d
| leader_since6 = 20 May 2023
| leaders_seat6 = ''N/A''
| last_election6 = N/A
| seats_before6 = N/A
| seats6 =
| seats_needed6 = {{increase}} 23
| seat_change6 =
| popular_vote6 =
| percentage6 =
| swing6 =


| title = [[Prime Minister]] and [[Deputy Prime Minister]]
==Previous Election Comparison==
| before_election = [[TheBritishUnion]] ([[Conservative]]) <br> [[AdaptedFrost]] ([[Voice]])
The votes and seats in the previous election are in the table below, as well as what the results would've looked like in a 60-seat parliament (shown in the infobox as in brackets), and a comparison to this election:
}}
{| class="wikitable sortable" style="text-align:right;"
The '''next general election''' is due to be held no later than 23 July 2023. Currently, the parties expected to run in the July general election are the, [[Conservative & Unionist Party]], [[Labour Party]], [[Voice Party]], [[Four Star Party]], [[Liberal Democrats]] and [[Reclaim Party]].
|-
! colspan="3" |
! colspan="6" |Last Election
! colspan="8" |This Election
|-
! colspan="2" rowspan="2" | Party
! rowspan="2" | Leader
! colspan="2" |Votes
! colspan="2" |Seats (50)
! colspan="2" |Seats (60)
! colspan="2" |Votes
! colspan="2" |Change
! colspan="2" |Seats (60)
! colspan="2" |Change
|-
!
!Of total
!
!Of total
!
!Of total
!
!Of total
!
!Of total
!
!Of total
!
!Of total
|-
| style="text-align:left;" |[[Conservative Party]]
| style="background:{{party color|Conservative Party (UK)}};" |
| style="text-align:left;" |[[Marcus_Stuyvesant]]
|166
|41.5%
|21
|42%
|25
|45.6%
| colspan="8" style="text-align:center;" |''TBD''
 
|-
| style="text-align:left;" |[[Labour Party]]
| style="background:{{party color|Labour Party (UK)}};" |
| style="text-align:left;" |[[RebaAstor]]
|120
|30.0%
|15
|30%
|18
|30%
| colspan="8" style="text-align:center;" |''TBD''
|-
| style="text-align:left;" |[[Four Star Party]]
| style="background:#000000;" |
| style="text-align:left;" |[[Dxavus]]
| 44
|11.1%
|5
|10%
|7
|11.6%
| colspan="8" style="text-align:center;" |''TBD''
|-
| style="text-align:left;" |[[Voice Party]]
| style="background:#089090;" |
| style="text-align:left;" |[[AdaptedFrost]]
|36
|9.0%
| 5
|10%
|5
|8.3%
| colspan="8" style="text-align:center;" |''Party disbanded due to espionage''
|-
| style="text-align:left;" |[[Liberal Democrats]]
| style="background:{{party color|Liberal Democrats (UK)}};" |
| style="text-align:left;" |[[BlazeFuse]]
|25
|6.25%
|3
|6%
|4
|6.6%
| colspan="8" style="text-align:center;" |''Party deregistered''
|-
| style="text-align:left;" |[[UK First]]
| style="background:#12B6CF;" |
| style="text-align:left;" |[[OwenKCSmith]]
|9
|2.25%
| 1
|2%
|1
|1.6%
| colspan="8" style="text-align:center;" |''Merged with [[Four Star Party|Four Star]]''


==Opinion polling==
|}


==Notes==
==Notes==
<references/>
<references />

Latest revision as of 00:12, 2 July 2023

July 2023 general election
← May 2023 1 July 2023
All 60 seats in the House of Commons
31 seats needed for a majority
  Marcus_Stuyvesant?size=100x100&.png RebaAstor?size=100x100&.png Dxavus?size=100x100&.png
Leader Marcus_Stuyvesant RebaAstor Dxavus
Party Conservative Labour Four Star
Leader since 21 June 2023 17 April 2023 1 May 2023
Leader's seat Norfolk Lothian Surrey
Last election 21 (25)[1] seats, 41.5% 15 (18) seats, 30.0% 5 (7) seats, 11.1%
Current seats 21 (25) 15 (18) 6 (8)
Seats needed Increase 10 (Increase 6) Increase 16 (Increase 13) Increase 25 (Increase 23)
  DaMysticPenguin?size=100x100&.png
Leader DaMysticPenguin
Party Progressive
Leader since 11 June 2023
Leader's seat N/A
Last election Did not stand
Seats needed Increase 31 (Increase 31)
Incumbent Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Minister

TheBritishUnion (Conservative)
AdaptedFrost (Voice)


The next general election is due to be held on 1 July 2023. Currently, the parties expected to run in the July 2023 general election are the Conservatives, the Labour Party, the Four Star Party, and Progressives.

Opinion polls

Dates
conducted 		Pollster Sample
size 		Con Lab Reclaim Lib Dems Four Star Voice Lead Result
4–6 June British Media Group 65 24 12 6 1 4 3 12 Hung
The Liberal Democrats are deregistered as a political party.
The Reclaim Party are deregistered due to the ban of their former leader BenHenley.
The Progressive Party are registered by former Justice secretary DaMysticPenguin.
Prime Minister TheBritishUnion calls for an early general election for the first of July due to the Voice Party withdrawing as a minor coalition partner.
Dates
conducted 		Pollster Sample
size 		Con Lab Pro Four Star Voice Lead Result
20-23 June BT Media 87 17 22 0 8 13 5 Hung
22-24 June British Broadcasting Corporation 110 15 20 8 11 6 5 Hung
The Voice Party is deregistered by the Electoral Commission on several offences, including voter importing which originally issued a 20% voter deduction, theft of Labour Party manifesto policies, and failing to fulfill it's role as a 'responsible political entity.'
Dates
conducted 		Pollster Sample
size 		Con Lab Pro Four Star Lead Result
30 June - 1 July British Media Group 77 18 25 9 8 7 Hung


Background

In the 14th of April, 2023, the Speaker of the House of Commons, TheBritishUnion, became the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom for a second term following an unopposed leadership election for the governing Conservative and Unionist Party, after the resignation of former Prime Minister BenHenley due to internal party disagreements over the role of the Levelling Up secretary and Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, ThomasHenley, as well as subsequent cabinet resignations that led to the loss of confidence in the Prime Minister. The aforementioned Conservative and Unionist Party – had governed the United Kingdom since the November 2022 general election, with the first Conservative government under Prime Minister ShiforRBLX with a narrow majority in Parliament with 26 seats. TheBritishUnion succeeded Shifor in his first term as the leader of the Conservatives, further increasing the majority to 29 seats in the January 2023 general election, the best ever result for the Conservatives in British electoral history. In the May 2023 general election, TheBritishUnion lost his single-party parliamentary majority to 21 seats, resulting in successful coalition talks with the Voice Party and a fourth straight Conservative government. However, in the 21st of June, 2023, the Voice Party announced their withdrawal from the coalition agreement with the Conservatives, due to a number of factors, including low government approval ratings and high opposition approval ratings, uncertainty amongst cabinet members, and previous accusations and scandals that culminated in the collapse of the coalition cabinet and calls for an early general election were made shortly after. Prime Minister TBU was replaced by Marcus_Stuyvesant, the Minister of State for Commonwealth and International Development.

Seat increase

The seats in the House of Commons were increased from fifty (50) to sixty (60) following the Amendment to the Electoral Provisions Act 2021 by Minister without Portfolio martinbani22. This change takes place this election.

Previous Election Comparison

The votes and seats in the previous election are in the table below, as well as what the results would've looked like in a 60-seat parliament (shown in the infobox as in brackets), and a comparison to this election:

Last Election This Election
Party Leader Votes Seats (50) Seats (60) Votes Change Seats (60) Change
Of total Of total Of total Of total Of total Of total Of total
Conservative Party Marcus_Stuyvesant 166 41.5% 21 42% 25 45.6% TBD
Labour Party RebaAstor 120 30.0% 15 30% 18 30% TBD
Four Star Party Dxavus 44 11.1% 5 10% 7 11.6% TBD
Voice Party AdaptedFrost 36 9.0% 5 10% 5 8.3% Party disbanded due to espionage
Liberal Democrats BlazeFuse 25 6.25% 3 6% 4 6.6% Party deregistered
UK First OwenKCSmith 9 2.25% 1 2% 1 1.6% Merged with Four Star

Notes

  1. ↑ Seats in (brackets) reflect what last election's results would've been if calculated on 60 seats.
Retrieved from ‘https://bmg.wiki/index.php?title=July_2023_general_election&oldid=3400’